2019 Fantasy QB Tiers, Draft Strategy | Sporting News

Who doesn’t love talking draft strategy? For a lot of fantasy football owners, it’s more fun than the actual draft (and certainly the season). Heading into your 2019 drafts, you’ll be armed with all levels of cheat sheets, sleepers and projections (and hopefully some food). But the difference in five spots on the quarterback rankings list doesn’t translate easily to a Top 200 or draft big board. That’s why many fantasy owners like to break things down into QB tiers.

Football’s most important position is quarterback, but because of its depth, it doesn’t have to be a priority position in fantasy. However, if you have a bad QB, odds are you’re going to have a bad season. By tiering QBs, you can make sure you don’t ignore this key position too long. Moreover, by deciding which tier you want to target, you can map out a draft strategy for every position.

2019 Fantasy QB Rankings: Who’s the best fantasy quarterback?

It was tempting to put Patrick Mahomes II into his own tier. Frankly, you shouldn’t be drafting a different QB first in your draft unless you’ve got some kind of funky scoring. Mahomes should always be the first off the board. Maybe that makes Mahomes sort of a 1A, but it also feels like Andrew Luck is officially back in the Tier 1 of fantasy quarterbacks. With the way he played last year and with the Colts finally keeping him upright, Luck’s earned it.

You’re probably wondering what sets these guys apart from the rest of the pack. It’s pretty simple. More than any others, Mahomes and Luck shouldn’t bust. They shouldn’t even come close to busting barring injury. Drafting them in the third round won’t destroy your season. For what it’s worth, Mahomes is going in the second round in 12-team standard leagues and Luck in the late-fourth, according to FantasyPros. They’ll put up their numbers. Even a bad season from one of these stars should get you 30 TD passes.

If others want to reach for Mahomes or Luck, let them. There are just too many good quarterbacks in the next couple tiers to pass up the RBs or WRs that could be taken in the first two rounds. But these are the two guys that, in the grand scheme of things, are worth taking nearly that high. While both of their seasons last year exceeded most expectations, that won’t happen this year. Instead, they’ll just deliver what you’re hoping for.

In the quarterback rankings, we talked about how important having a good QB is. So, having the better one heading into almost every matchup can’t be a bad strategy. You just have to be smart about the rest of your picks.

1. Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs
2. Andrew Luck, Colts

SLEEPERS:
8 QBs | 14 RBs | 11 WRs | 11 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team

2019 Fantasy Football QB Tiers: Second tier, but not second rate

If we were trying to predict the quarterbacks most likely to dethrone Mahomes as fantasy’s top quarterback in 2019, it would likely be one of the five signal-callers in our Tier 2. All have top-tier ability, but there are slight doubts about their abilities to produce at a consistently high level.

Matt Ryan hasn’t delivered every time he’s been ranked this high (ranked No. 7 heading into 2017, he finished 15th); Aaron Rodgers will be without Mike McCarthy for the first time since his rookie season and has durability questions; and Russell Wilson lacks his classic top target in Doug Baldwin and inevitably will get sacked a ton.

Then you have two relative youngsters who we just haven’t seen do it for a full season yet: Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson. Both could put up monster numbers and compete for the top spot, but odds are they’ll stay just a bit outside the top tier.

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This is a great tier to target for your starting fantasy QB in 2019. None of these guys are going before pick 50 in standard leagues, per FantasyPros. That means you’ll be able to select at least four or five players before you get a relatively sure-thing starting quarterback. And if you wait even longer for one of the guys in the tier below this, you’ll still be OK. The depth of QB this year is seriously astounding.

3. Matt Ryan, Falcons
4. Deshaun Watson, Texans
5. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
6. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
7. Baker Mayfield, Browns

2019 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Wait on quarterback?

If you’re in a 12-team league and haven’t drafted a QB from either of the first two tiers, don’t fret. You’re still going to get stellar production out of that position from our Tier 3 guys. There’s nothing to suggest that two of the long-time stalwarts at the position, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers, will slow down. They’re about as safe as you can get at this point even if they don’t quite have the overall upside of the guys above them.

Let’s start with Rivers, who’s currently going off draft boards on average around pick 111 (meaning you’ll have picked nine guys before him in 12-team leagues). He’s thrown at least 26 touchdowns in 11 straight seasons. Talk about locking in your points. And Brees? He’s in the midst of setting the NFL single-season completion percentage record two straight years.

Then you have side-by-side draft picks from the 2016 NFL Draft in Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. In his best weeks last season, Goff was a matchup-winner. If Wentz can return to his sophomore-year production, he’ll threaten the names above, though obviously he is an injury concern. Perhaps we’ll never see that level again as he runs less, but he can still light up stat sheets with his passing ability.

Kirk Cousins is coming off a career high in completion percentage and passing touchdowns, and he’s posted over 4,000 passing yards and 30 total TDs four straight seasons. Even with the Vikings wanting to run more this year, he feels like a safe bet for solid production. It should be noted that most owners aren’t as high on Cousins as we are, so you can probably wait on him even longer. Roethlisberger is coming off a career high in yards, but with Antonio Brown gone, there are reasons to worry about him, at least relative to the players above him in our rankings. Still, you know he’s going to be throwing.

Obviously, even if you wait until this tier to draft your QB, you’re going to be in good shape. If you already have a starter, it might not be worth it to grab one of these fellas as your backup (unless they really fall). Spending two early-to-mid-round picks isn’t a sound strategy unless you know you’re going to own the waiver wire once the season starts.

8. Jared Goff, Rams
9. Drew Brees, Saints
10. Philip Rivers, Chargers
11. Carson Wentz, Eagles
12. Kirk Cousins, Vikings
13. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

Fantasy QB Rankings Tiers: Best backups and sleepers

Once you’re down to Tier 4 in a 12-team league, you’re probably thinking about selecting a backup quarterback. In a deeper league, these players might still find their way into a starting spots. Regardless, our fourth tier contains players in two types of situations.

Dak Prescott and Derek Carr are in different situations than they were in 2018. For Prescott, it’s thanks to a full season with Amari Cooper. Prescott’s output of 20-point fantasy days quadrupled after Cooper arrived in Dallas last year, and it doesn’t hurt that old reliable Jason Witten returns and Michael Gallup should be better with more experience. Carr gets an even bigger boon in the form of Antonio Brown’s and Tyrell Williams’s arrivals in Oakland, although we haven’t seen them play together in games yet, unlike Prescott and Cooper.

For someone like Mitchell Trubisky and Josh Allen, we’re obviously projecting true breakouts. They showed themselves to be effective last season, and they provide some level of consistency and week-to-week value with their rushing (although that same trait probably increases their risk of injury). Still, we like Trubisky’s offensive system and think he can perform close to an every-week starter’s level. Allen is more of a question mark, but he has the tools to rack up “ugly points”.

Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford are both on the wrong side of the aging curve (if Brady’s aging even has a curve). But both are veterans who have been near the top of these lists before. There’s still an outside chance they could get there again. Stafford joins Cam Newton on the coming-off-injury portion of this list. He reportedly played at least part of last season with a broken back, and Newton has a bum throwing shoulder. Newton would normally rank higher in the preseason (and, indeed he is on most other sites), but the odds of him finishing near the top of the QB leaderboards are lower than usual because of the shoulder injury.

Prescott and Carr are being drafted lower than we rank them, so they will provide good value as backups. You don’t need to reach for the others, as any will get the job down as your No. 2. All of these guys have top-10 potential if things break right.

14. Dak Prescott, Cowboys
15. Derek Carr, Raiders
16. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears
17. Cam Newton, Panthers
18. Tom Brady, Patriots
19. Josh Allen, Bills
20. Matthew Stafford, Lions

Fantasy Football QB Sleepers: Kyler Murray season outlook

A word to the wise: If you don’t yet have a starting QB at this point in the draft and you’re in a league of 16 teams or fewer, I’d advise you to please head back in time and start over. That WR you drafted in the 12th round was not more important than the starting quarterback you could’ve been taking from an above tier. Tier 5 features some intriguing sleepers, but you’re not going to feel great about any as your starter to open the season.

We’ll get some pushback on that statement from the Kyler Murray fans out there. He’s being treated like a borderline QB1 by many, but there are still plenty of question marks about him and the Cardinals offense. He has plenty of upside, but there are worries about his size and offensive line. The other five names here – Jameis Winston, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold – are the five toughest relevant QBs to get a read on.

All inspire some hope, either as former high draft picks or players who have flashed in limited opportunity. In their own ways, they’re all worth a flier to see if they can break out. Many owners will already have their backups before these guys are off the board, and can you really justify passing on Tom Brady or Matthew Stafford so you can take Marcus Mariota or Sam Darnold?

This tier is all about belief. If you’re picking someone here, you have to believe they can leap names above them. All six have the ability to do so, but for various reasons, that’s not the most likely outcome. So, pick your fancy and say a prayer that the guy you’ve taken is the right one.

21. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
22. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
23. Marcus Mariota, Titans
24. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
25. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
26. Sam Darnold, Jets

Fantasy Draft Strategy: Do-Not-Draft QBs

Welcome to Tier 6, or the quarterback section of the waiver wire. Unless you’re in a two-QB league, there’s no reason to own any of these players aside from maybe Dwayne Haskins if he can snatch the Washington starting job. Besides that, something has gone terribly wrong if you ever have to start any of these scrubs.

27. Andy Dalton, Bengals
28. Eli Manning, Giants
29. Nick Foles, Jaguars
30. Joe Flacco, Broncos
31. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins
32. Case Keenum, Redskins
33. Dwayne Haskins, Redskins
34. Josh Rosen, Dolphins
35. Daniel Jones, Giants
36. Drew Lock, Broncos
37. Brett Hundley, Cardinals
38. Colt McCoy, Redskins