The Syrian Kurds at a crossroad
Turkish tank en route to Syrian borders in Kilis, Turkey, January 22, 2018, to take part in "Operation Olive Branch" in the Afrin region. Picture by Depo Photos/ABACA/ABACA/PA images. All rights reserved. The
situation for
the Kurds today is reminiscent
of the times
of the Sykes-Picot
agreement and the Sever and Lausanne treaties
at the beginning
of the last century.
As in all exceptional moments in the history of the region, there is
much talk about the nature of the Kurds' belonging to the countries
where they live, and whether they have separatist projects.
In the Syrian case, for example, the question that strongly arises is
whether the Kurds in Syria are Syrians or Kurds. This question is
also common in Iraq, Turkey, and Iran.
The
Kurdish issue and how to deal with it is what brings together these
four countries, despite the political, ethnic, and ideological
differences among them. In the case of Iraqi Kurdistan, the four
countries agreed to reject the referendum held late last year,
preventing the establishment of a Kurdish state by regaining the
control of Iraqi forces together with the Iranian-backed Popular
Mobilisation Forces (PMF) over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and all
other so-called disputed areas between the Iraqi government and the
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
The
Democratic Society Movement (TEV-DEM) is one of the most important
Kurdish entities in Syria. It includes military, security, social and
political organizations, among which are the Democratic Union Party
(PYD), considered the most effective in the Syrian Kurdish political
scene, and the "People's Protection Units" (YPG), the major
pillar of Syria's democratic forces (SDF). The Democratic Society
Movement is an intellectual extension of the (Turkish) Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK) in Syria and its leader Abdullah Ocalan,
who has been imprisoned on the Turkish island of Imrali since 1999.
In Syria, it attempts to decentralize the future government of Syria,
starting with the self-administration declaration in early 2014 and
followed by the Community Federation, in partnership with many local
components, in the provinces of Al-Jazeera, Al-Furat, and Afrin. It
seeks to do so to gradually reduce the authority of the Syrian
government in areas of control.
The
other Kurdish political entity in Syria, apart
from PYD, is
led by the Kurdish National Council (KNC) in Syria (an alliance that
was established in 2011 and includes several Kurdish parties in
Syria), namely the Kurdistan Democratic Party – Syria, which receives
support from the Kurdistan Regional Government. "The Council"
has a military force, "Peshmerga Roj Ava", which was
trained by the Kurdistan region of Iraq and participated in the
battles of Mosul against the so-called Islamic State (IS). However,
the Syrian government allied itself with TEV-DEM at the beginning of
the Syrian war in 2011, allowing it to establish a military force
(the People's Protection Units) and a security one (Asayish) in order
to share some influence in areas of Kurdish majority.
Since
the Battle of Kobani (Ain al-Arab) in 2014, TEV-DEM expanded its
control all over the area, becoming an ally of the US-led coalition,
as SDF. It achieved major victories against IS in Manbij, Al-Raqqa,
Tal Abyad, and part of Deir Al-Zour, to fully control the entire
eastern Euphrates, which is considered today as the American area of
influence, facing the control of the Syrian army and its allies on
the west Euphrates.
However, the Syrian government observes that its Kurdish "ally"
is – gradually – establishing a semi-independent entity whose
ambition may end in independence.
SDF's alliance with the U.S increased the fear of a divisive project
The
differences between the two rival parties led to clashes between the
Syrian army and the People's Protection Units in both the cities of
Al-Qamishli and Al-Hasakah, where the Syrian government used the
airforce for the first time. This incident indicated the depth of the
dispute between them. Consequently, it led to the recent "alliance
of necessity" between the Syrian and Turkish governments in a
joint effort – sponsored by Russia and Iran – to prevent a Kurdish
region on the border between the two countries.
Following
its ambitions of a new Middle East with secular slogans and a Muslim
Brotherhoods' modernist character, the Turkish government of
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan became looked inwards and was focused
on facing the Kurdish threat of the Federation of Northern Syria, led
by political groups affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK), the primary enemy of Turkey since the eighties of the last
century. Also, SDF's alliance with the U.S increased the fear of a divisive project with the Kurds acting as
its warhead, which threatens Turkey's national security. Therefore,
the Turkish forces, in cooperation with their Syrian opposition
allies, entered the areas of Jarablus and Al-Bab last year in an
effort to separate the two provinces of Kobani and Afrin, in addition
to their current direct intervention in Afrin to prevent SDF's access
to a seaport which would create a viable entity.
Like
the Syrian government, Iran tactically allied itself with the PYD and
its armed wing, YPG in the early days of the Syrian crisis. This
alliance gradually shrank after the battles to regain control over
the city of Kobani / Ayn Al-Arab. Along with the Syrian government,
Iran refrained from supporting the YPG to recover the town, which
allowed the latter to ally with the U.S.
The declared federal project faces a remarkable common rejection by the conflicting parties in Syria
Surely,
Iran, which participated with its full force in the Syrian war, will
not accept a government hostile towards it, and close to Washington.
Subsequently, the latter's interest is to observe the Iraqi – Syrian
border to prevent Tehran from reaching the Mediterranean, passing
through Damascus and the southern suburb of Beirut (the main
stronghold of the Lebanese Hezbollah). In this case, SDF is the best
ally. However, it is difficult for the latter to do this task
considering the strong relationship between the PKK and Iran, as well
as the "PKK’s" hostility toward Turkey.
The
declared federal project faces a remarkable common rejection by the
conflicting parties in Syria, and for contradictory reasons. It is
only a few times that the Syrian government and the opposition
platforms of Riyadh, Moscow, and Cairo hold the same position. This
project also faces rejection by the KNC. Both
the
Syrian government and the opposition platforms accuse the "project"
of being one of separation and consider it a partition plan sponsored
by the US.
In
contrast, the KNC describes it as a far cry from the Kurdish national
dream and accuses its directors, especially the TEV-DEM, of not
having a Kurdish national project but only a utopian one. I believe
that the fate of such a project is linked to the regional and
international agreements regarding the Syrian crisis. In other words,
since both, the United States and its allies on the one hand and the
Russian Federation and its allies, on the other hand, lead the world
and share the region's dossiers, the Kurdish dossier, therefore, is
up for international agreements. Finally,
in such major crises we might either see a Kurdish region with
international blessings or there will be another treaty to replace
Lausanne, but under different conditions.