Turkey’s prospects for membership of the European Union hinge on its ability to reform its institutions and economy, and on the views of Union members such as Germany and France, both of which are hostile to the idea of Turkish accession. 

But its drive for membership may founder well before then, unless there is a solution to the division of Cyprus. The fate of 75 million Turks depends on what happens on an island of fewer than 900,000 people.

Over the past year and a half, the leaders of the Greek majority and the Turkish minority on Cyprus, one-third of which has been under Turkish occupation since 1974, have held around 70 meetings. The talks have gone well, but they have been slower than planned.

They could also break down altogether if Mehmet Ali Talat, the leader of the Turkish community on Cyprus, is voted out next weekend and replaced by Dervis¸ Erog?lu, a hardliner. Polls suggest that Talat will lose.

In that case, Turkey will put pressure on Eroglu to engage with the Greek Cypriots under Demetris Christofias, the president. That would not guarantee a solution – the issues are genuinely difficult – but it would prevent a complete breakdown of the dialogue.

Rule changes

There is another element that may yet produce a breakthrough – the EU’s Lisbon treaty. An unintended by-product of a change in voting rules introduced by the reform treaty may be an unimpeded flow of goods and traffic between the EU, Cyprus and Turkey, and the resolution of one of the principal consequences of Cyprus’s accession to the EU as a divided island.

When Cyprus joined the EU in 2004, the European Commission proposed a regulation allowing direct trade between the EU and the Turkish-occupied north, where EU law does not apply. But the Republic of Cyprus – in effect, the Greek part – blocked the regulation in the Council of Ministers. As a result, trade from the north has been possible only with the south of the island (and with Turkey), and not with the EU.

Turkey then refused to allow Cypriot traffic through its ports, saying it will only allow such traffic once the Turkish Cypriots can trade with the EU. As a result, the EU suspended discussions on eight chapters of EU’s accession talks.

Impasse

That impasse could now be broken. The EU’s draft direct-trade directive is contained in a package of other draft decisions that were re-cast by the Commission after the Lisbon treaty came into force in December, and, once the European Parliament has approved a report, the directive will reach the Council of Ministers. Its decision will be taken by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity.

The Republic of Cyprus’s block on Turkish Cypriot trade may be broken – and it may then be possible to overcome the obstacles that have led to the suspension of a quarter of Turkey’s accession chapters.