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Alternative Premier League table after 12 games, based on expected goals

November 11, 2019 /

The wild 2019/20 Premier League season continued at the weekend with VAR the major talking point again.

It seems a shame given we saw Liverpool surge eight points clear, Sheffield United give Tottenham a real scare, and Leicester City beat Arsenal to cement their top four credentials.

Although, according to the ‘expected goals’ (xG) metric, the Foxes were perhaps a little fortunate, while Spurs could have won and Man City were a tad unlucky too

According to xG, things in the Premier League could look a lot different had results gone the way statistics suggested.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the metric allows us to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how clubs are performing based on their stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

20. Norwich – Real position = 20

Real points = 7 | Expected points = 8.35

19. Newcastle United – Real position = 13

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 9.54

18. West Ham United – Real position = 16

Real points = 13 | Expected points = 11.48

17. Crystal Palace – Real position = 12

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 12.44

16. Aston Villa – Real position = 17

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 12.69

15. Southampton – Real position = 19

Real points = 8 | Expected points = 13.69

14. Bournemouth – Real position = 9

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 14.76

13. Sheffield United – Real position = 5

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 14.78

12. Arsenal – Real position = 6

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 15.27

11. Tottenham – Real position = 14

Real points = 14 | Expected points = 15.28

10. Watford – Real position = 18

Real points = 8 | Expected points = 16.13

9. Brighton – Real position = 11

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 16.49

8. Burnley – Real position = 10

Real points = 15 | Expected points = 17.73

7. Wolves – Real position = 8

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 17.76

6. Leicester City – Real position = 2

Real points = 26 | Expected points = 17.82

5. Everton – Real position = 15

Real points = 14 | Expected points = 20.18

4. Manchester United – Real position = 7

Real points = 16 | Expected points = 23.22

3. Chelsea – Real position = 3

Real points = 26 | Expected points = 23.28

2. Liverpool – Real position = 1

Real points = 34 | Expected points = 23.92

1. Manchester City – Real position = 4

Real points = 25 | Expected points = 28.28

Saturday is GameDay on talkSPORT and talkSPORT 2 as we become your go to destination for all the Premier League action.

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