Argentina´s war on crime could backfire

Heavy fisted approaches to public security are
making a come-back across the Americas, including in Argentina. Despite registering
some of the lowest rates of criminal violence in Latin America, the country´s
new government wasted no time to applying so-called "mano dura"
strategies to fight organized crime. In 2015, just weeks after getting into
office President Macri issued a state of "public emergency" (which was extended into 2016). He
came to power vowing to eradicate organized crime. His initial efforts suggest
he´s made some headway. While appealing to many, militarizing the fight against
crime can backfire.

Hard-line approaches to
combating criminal violence are hardly new to Argentina. But they do mark a
change from the previous decade. Over the past year, the Argentinian public
authorities pushed for an array of reforms – to lower the penal age
of criminal responsibility from 16 to 14, speed-up deportations of
foreigners involved in crimes, incarcerate low-level drug offenders, extend
prison sentences, and authorize the shooting down of planes suspected of
involvement in drug trafficking. While these approaches go down well with
voters, their record of success in the longer
term is mixed.

Is Argentina's war on crime
warranted? While robbery and assaults have risen in recent years, talk of
a "crime wave" may be overstated. When compared to its
neighbors, Argentina actually registers an unusually low murder rate: it
appears to have declined from 7.4 per 100,000 in the early 1990s and
6.6 per 100,000 in 2015. While it´s true that the national homicide rate seems to have decreased by 19%
in the first half 2016, it was already among the lowest in the Americas. The government claims
these reductions are due to interventions such as "Barrios Seguros" but the truth is that no one knows due
to lack of any impact evaluations.

Notwithstanding low levels of
violent crime, the Argentinean public supports the crack-down on crime. One of
the reasons for this is that many citizens are fearful of being a victim
themselves. Surveys conducted by the Latin American Opinion Project (LAPOP) suggest that
roughly a third of Argentinians believe that public security is the single
biggest challenge facing the country. The recent murder of a young activist from the “Ni Una Menos”
(Not One Less) shed light on the problem of femicide in Argentina. It has also
hardened the public mood toward criminal offenders.

Part of the challenge with deciding how best
to respond is that reliable crime data in Argentina is exceedingly hard to come
by. In 2016, the public authorities released official crime statistics for the first time in eight
years. This is to be commended. The data they made available does not support
the widespread panic over criminal violence and drug trafficking. To the
contrary – the rates for most types of crimes appear comparatively stable, and
low by regional standards. But there are still gaping data gaps, especially
when it comes to assessing the scale of the drug market and extent of
homicide.

While tough on crime measures are
enthusiastically supported by many Argentinians, especially those living in the
capital Buenos Aires, they are potentially risky. For one, they could lead to the increased
involvement of the armed forces in ostensibly domestic law and order matters.
Soldiers are not trained to prevent crime or arrest suspects – they are taught
to shoot to kill. At the moment, military involvement seems to be limited to
shooting down planes suspected of carrying drugs. But it is a slippery slope.
As the experience of Mexico´s war on drugs has shown, the deployment of the
military can generate short-term gains, but it can also result in a
massive escalation of violence and human rights violations –as
citizens of a certain age know only too well.

Likewise, the campaign to accelerate the
imprisonment drug traffickers will appeal to some voters, but it can also
generate new problems. As public authorities from Brazil and Colombia have
found out, over-crowded prisons give rise to a new generation of criminals. A
more effective strategy is to focus scarce law enforcement resources on violent
offenders, and explore alternate sentencing strategies for low-level dealers.
Consumers should be removed from the criminal justice system entirely. In 2009,
Argentina´s Supreme Court declared the criminalization of personal possession
and use of drugs unconstitutional. Even so, the police continue with
prohibitionist policies, because the parliament has yet to adapt the laws.

The fight against crime cannot be won by
repressive policing and tougher sentencing alone. Prevention is potentially
even more important. There is widespread evidence that aggressive counter-narcotics
measures not only fail on their own standards, they can also inadvertently
increase violence by destabilizing drug markets. This does not mean that the
state is powerless to act. To the contrary. Rather, the point is that the
criminal justice system would do well to focus its resources on the most
serious crimes. Be tough against the tough, but be compassionate with
vulnerable.

Historically, most people who are arrested in crack-downs across Argentina are in
possession of small amounts of drugs. They typically belong to marginal
segments of society, and are not necessarily part of a well-oiled criminal
organization. As experiences from elsewhere in Latin America show, the Argentine
authorities will achieve better results when it uses repression to curb the
power of corruption, money laundering and violence rather than going after
low-level dealers and users. By the same token, the state and municipal
authorities should adopt preventive measures to reduce the risks of criminal
violence and alleviate the suffering of the most vulnerable.

The current government has a real opportunity
to adopt effective pathways to reducing crime and victimization. It could start
by setting a balanced strategy. This means setting clear goals and targets
focusing on the most extreme forms of criminal violence – especially homicide.
Focusing on especially murderous cities – such as Santa Fe, which registers
homicide rates of roughly 26 per 100,000 – will yield important returns.
Effective violence prevention also requires developing a culture of prevention,
one that embraces data-driven and evidence-based strategies to fight crime.
Heavy-handed measures may help win elections, but they can also generate
far-reaching unintended consequences. Sometimes the proposed cure can make the
disease even worse.

This article is published as part of the campaign Instinto de Vida (https://www.instintodevida.org).