Ben Gummer tipped to replace David Davis as UK Brexit negotiator
Ben Gummer is being strongly tipped for a step up the ladder | Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images
Brexit Files Insight
Ben Gummer tipped to replace David Davis as UK Brexit negotiator
Young cabinet office minister is highly regarded by Prime Minister Theresa May.
LONDON — It has long been rumored in Brussels that Theresa May would use the general election to get rid of David Davis. Now the same rumor has reached London.
The Times reported today that the prime minister, should she win the election, is considering “promoting” Davis to foreign secretary to replace Boris Johnson. The young cabinet office minister Ben Gummer has been lined up to be the new secretary of state for exiting the European Union, the paper’s well-connected political editor Francis Elliott writes.
The idea of Davis being moved from the Brexit department seemed absurd until very recently. Why move your lead negotiator just before the negotiations begin? It doesn’t look very “strong and stable.”
Davis has also been one of the key figures in government whom May and her team have turned to throughout the campaign. He was even chosen to introduce the prime minister to launch the Conservative Party’s manifesto.
But his position as Brexit secretary now appears to be under threat. “DD isn’t 100 percent,” one government official told POLITICO.
Most still expect him to remain in post, but the undermining has begun. He doesn’t always read his brief is one complaint doing the rounds in Westminster. In Brussels, it has long been said that he isn’t across the detail.
Those close to Davis dismiss this out of hand. Prior to the election his reputation in Whitehall was good. He was seen as the one grown-up of the “three Brexiteers” promoted into government by May. He was taking his job seriously, listening to civil servants and making allies with Hammond and other senior Brexit-skeptics in government.
Yet, inside the Brexit department it has yet to be established whether Davis — even if he stays in the job — will be running the day-to-day negotiations or whether it will be the department’s permanent secretary, Olly Robbins. One scenario raised with POLITICO as a serious option is for Robbins to oversee the talks three weeks out of four, with Davis heading to Brussels for the fourth week to rubber-stamp the decisions and iron out any political differences that may have emerged.
Moving Davis and Johnson carries major political risks for the prime minister. First, Gummer was one of the most pro-Remain Tories in government — his appointment would be a red rag to the Tory Euroskeptic bull. Second, putting Johnson on the backbenches, or in a more junior government post, risks making him a leader of the internal opposition that might whip up trouble for her final Brexit deal. Is that really what May wants?
The safe money in Westminster is still that Davis remains in post. But that his future is now being openly discussed speaks volumes about how far the narrative has moved on.
This insight is from POLITICO‘s Brexit Files newsletter, a daily afternoon digest of the best coverage and analysis of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Read today’s edition or subscribe here.